When is the Next CPI Report?

"When is the next CPI report?" was a question no one was asking back in the days of 2% inflation readings.

Alas, those days are long gone. Inflation hit a four-decade high in 2022, prompting the Federal Reserve to embark on its most aggressive campaign of interest rate hikes since the late Carter and early Reagan administrations.

Though inflation peaked back in 2022, the fact remains that it's still too high for the central bank's comfort. That's why the Consumer Price Index, or CPI report, has become pretty much the star of the economic calendar.

Subscribe to Kiplinger’s Personal Finance

Be a smarter, better informed investor.

Save up to 74%

Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free E-Newsletters

Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail.

Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice - straight to your e-mail.

Sign up

Markets desperately want the Fed to stop raising interest rates – and especially look forward to a time when the central bank pivots to rate cuts – but that won't happen until after inflation is under control. There's also the very real fear that rising rates could cause the economy to fall into a recession.

This explains the market's obsession with the next CPI report. And the one after that, and the one after that.

For the record, the CPI report is released monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, based on price data collected over the course of the month.

Per the BLS, prices for the goods and services used to calculate the CPI are collected in 75 urban areas throughout the country and from about 23,000 retail and service establishments. Data on rents are collected from about 50,000 landlords or tenants. The weight for an item is derived from reported expenditures on that item as estimated by the Consumer Expenditure Survey.

The CPI report is broken down into many subcategories, but the two main ones you'll hear most about on CPI day are headline CPI and core CPI. The headline number is the main inflation gauge. Core CPI excludes volatile food and energy prices, and is considered to be a better predictor of future inflation. The data are expressed as percent changes, and are measured both year-over-year and month-to-month. 

As for the next CPI report, the June inflation figures are slated for release by the BLS on July 11 at 8:30 am Eastern time. The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's Nowcast predicts annual headline inflation to increase by 3.1%, down from the 3.3% rate seen in the May CPI report. On a monthly basis, June inflation is forecast to rise 0.1%, or essentially unchanged from the prior month.

June's core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to increase 3.5% annually and 0.3% on a monthly basis. 

The inflation data will certainly influence what the central bank decides to do at the next Fed meeting. The FOMC left interest rates unchanged when it last met, and isn't expected to start cutting until September at the earliest.

Related Content

• Softer June Jobs Report Raises Rate-Cut Bets
• Best Dividend Stocks to Buy for Dependable Dividend Growth
• How to Find the Best Small-Cap Stocks to Buy